Trailing Labour in the polls after the damage inflicted by Boris Johnson’s resignation and a divisive leadership contest, a momentous task awaited Ms Truss in Downing Street. However, after just a month in office the Government is already in the midst of a polling crisis. Since the unveiling of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-slashing Growth Plan – which included a subsequently reversed provision to scrap the highest 45 percent rate of tax – the Tories find themselves further behind in the polls than ever before.
General election voting intention
In the final YouGov poll of Mr Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister – conducted between August 31 and September 1 – when asked if a general election were to be held tomorrow, 28 percent of respondents said they would vote Conservative, while 43 percent said they would vote for Labour.
Last Thursday, September 29 – after just under a month with Ms Truss at the helm – YouGov gave Labour 54 percent of the vote – the highest-ever vote share recorded by the pollster – to the Tories’ 21 percent. Labour’s 33-point lead was the largest found by any poll for over 20 years.
The latest from Politico hands Labour a 20-point lead over the party in Government, on 47 percent to 27 percent, as of September 29.
The most recent reliable polling available was conducted on October 2 by consulting firm Redfield & Wilton and put Labour 28 points ahead on 52 percent to 24 percent for the Conservatives.
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Seats in Parliament
Although the general public only cast a vote for their local MP, the decision in every voting booth is informed by the broader parties’ performance in Parliament and Government.
As the Conservative Party conference was underway, veteran pollster Sir John Curtice said Labour were “very clearly the favourites” to form the next Government.
As of September 30, political forecasters Electoral Calculus predict Labour are set to take 388 seats in the Commons at the next general election – 220 more than the Conservatives on 168.
The pollster gives the Opposition an 86 percent chance of being the majority party, and a 95 percent chance of being the largest party.
Liz Truss vs Keir Starmer approval rating
According to Politico, 35 percent disapproved of the job Ms Truss was doing on September 22, the day before the mini-budget announcement, while 30 percent approved.
Throughout the economic and political turmoil that ensued over the following week, the Prime Minister’s approval rating fell dramatically.
Taken between September 28 and 30, an Opinium poll found 55 percent of voters disapproved of Ms Truss, while just 18 percent approved.
This net approval deficit of 37 points is worse than recorded by Mr Johnson in his final days in office, and is only slightly better than her predecessors worst-ever rating of -42 during the partygate scandal.